The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

This occurs when people “relocate their money […] to greener and safer pastures” (212). The US is already benefitting from capital flight out of China. The author anticipates that this trend would increase in an era of de-globalization.

According to Zeihan, capitalism is an economic system that leaves decisions of consumption and production, supply and demand, and technology and communication to market forces or in the private sector. The government has a “light touch” (70). This economic model is based on growth, which a de-globalized world would lack.

In a command-driven communism system, the government is the economic planner. This system virtually eliminates private enterprise and choices. The old USSR had such a system. Even this model depends on growth. However, the author notes that it could possibly work in a de-globalized era with extreme repression and if those running the economy “guess correctly on […] which goods will be needed and how to access the relevant inputs. […] Every. Single. Time” (75).

This term refers to “a cascade of reinforcing breakdowns that do not simply damage, but destroy, the bedrock of what makes the modern world function” (66). In an era of de-globalization, some countries would face decivilization because they would lose access to energy, food, and technology.

A drop in prices for the wrong reasons, such as “cratering demand” (214), is deflation. With its aging population, Japan has battled this problem already. In a de-globalized future, both inflation and deflation would occur, depending on the region, country, sector, and product. As a result, bond trading would become difficult.

This term refers to the study of population structures. Zeihan combines demography with geopolitics to describe a de-globalized world. He is especially concerned about declining birth rates and an aging population in much of the industrialized world.

This economic arrangement joins business leadership with governmental rule. In fascist corporatism, businesses work toward governmental goals but are not operated by the government. The author argues that China’s government more closely resembles this form than its stated name of communism. Like the other systems, this one depends on economic growth, which would be absent during de-globalization. In addition, it is corrupt and extremely repressive.

Currencies that are not backed by assets, such as gold, are called fiat currencies. They allow leaders to print as much money as they want. Fiat currencies have created financial crises and promise future ones. Zeihan singles out China as the most egregious user of a fiat currency.

This term refers to “the study of place, exploring how everything about us is an outcome of where we are” (2). The author uses geopolitics and demography to describe a world of de-globalization. Geographic challenges were relevant before the globalized economy and would become relevant again in an era of de-globalization. The author identifies which countries and regions would have geographies of success and which would not.

Price inelasticity refers to disproportional swings resulting from changes in demand or supply. Ordinarily, prices rise proportionally to increases in demand or decreases in supply or vice versa. Zeihan explains that oil has inelasticity given that it is “central to everything” (249). Even a slight increase in demand, for example, can result in wild price swings.

In a relatively new form of drilling for oil, “fracking” operators drill horizontally on a petroleum-rich rock and pump water and sand into it at high pressure. When the rock cracks apart, “trillions of tiny pockets of oil and natural gas” (241) flow. The shale revolution has made the US the largest single-country oil producer. Because of this energy independence, ensuring the safety of oil shipped from the Persian Gulf to Europe and Asia is no longer in US interests. Shale drilling practices, however, have received much criticism for their devastating environmental effects and potential for creating land instability and contaminating water supplies.