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60 pages 2 hours read

Mustafa Suleyman

The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2023

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Themes

The Benefits of Transformative Technologies

Though technological waves can be destructive, they also usher in benefits that—in Suleyman’s view—humanity cannot afford to ignore. The benefits of the coming wave of technology, as outlined by Suleyman, are multifaceted and far-reaching, promising advancements across various domains that stand to significantly improve human life.

Suleyman describes the vast potential benefits of AI, synthetic biology, robotics, clean energy, and quantum computing. In the near term, advancements in AI offer the promise of increased efficiency, productivity, and convenience in various industries, from healthcare and finance to transportation and entertainment. Synthetic biology holds the potential to revolutionize medicine, agriculture, and environmental sustainability, offering solutions to pressing challenges such as disease eradication, food security, and climate change. Furthermore, robotics and automation offer opportunities for labor-saving and dangerous task automation, enhancing workplace safety and freeing humans to pursue more creative and fulfilling endeavors. Clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, and nuclear power, offer sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, mitigating environmental degradation and addressing climate change. Suleyman argues that the speculative future benefits of fields like synthetic biology would be revolutionary: “Want to make some washing detergent or a new toy or even grow a house? Just download the ‘recipe’ and hit ‘go’ (115). The technologies of the coming wave could unlock vast improvements in human prosperity.

Suleyman argues that, within the context of history, every technological wave has brought about improvements in human life, driving progress, innovation, and economic prosperity. From the agricultural revolution to the industrial revolution, each wave of technological advancement has ushered in transformative changes that have elevated living standards, increased life expectancy, and expanded opportunities for human flourishing. Suleyman emphasizes that the coming wave of technology is no different in this respect, presenting unprecedented opportunities for societal advancement and human well-being.

Moreover, Suleyman contends that the technologies of the coming wave are not only beneficial but also necessary for humanity's continued survival and prosperity: “I think it’s easy to discount how much of our way of life is underwritten by constant technological improvements” (276). He argues that maintaining or advancing the current standard of living requires continued technological progress to address pressing challenges such as population growth, resource depletion, environmental degradation, and geopolitical instability. Without embracing and harnessing the potential of emerging technologies, humanity risks stagnation and decline, unable to adapt to the evolving complexities of the modern world. Therefore, Suleyman advocates for proactive investment in research, development, and deployment of transformative technologies to ensure a prosperous and sustainable future for humanity. He asserts that embracing these technologies is not only prudent but imperative for securing a brighter and more sustainable future for generations to come.

The Dangers of Transformative Technologies

In The Coming Wave, the looming tide of technological advancement carries with it both promise and peril, with the latter threatening humanity’s future. Suleyman delineates various versions of failure that could result from the unchecked proliferation of technologies comprising the coming wave. Firstly, he highlights the risk of nation-states becoming weakened and “zombified,” unable to effectively navigate the complexities of the modern world, leading to catastrophic consequences. He warns that “some liberal democratic states will continue to be eroded from within, becoming a kind of zombie government. Trappings of liberal democracy and the traditional nation-state remain, but functionally they are hollowed out, the core services increasingly threadbare, the polity unstable and fractious” (200). These zombie governments will continue to crumble from within: “Lurching on in the absence of anything else, they become ever more degraded and dysfunctional” (200). At the other end of the spectrum, Suleyman warns that governments may become more powerful than ever, adopting authoritarian, invasive, and surveillance-based measures to maintain control, eroding civil liberties and fostering a dystopian reality. Governments that use the technologies of the coming wave oppressively could turn into “fully fledged techno-dictatorships,” “whose power goes beyond even history’s most extreme totalitarian governments” (200).

Moreover, Suleyman elucidates several hypothetical scenarios wherein the technologies of the coming wave veer dangerously off course, posing existential threats to humanity. From the prospect of autonomous drone swarms being weaponized by terrorists to the inadvertent release of highly transmissible and lethal pathogens resulting from gain-of-function research in synthetic biology, Suleyman paints a clear picture of potential catastrophe stemming from technological missteps. Furthermore, he highlights the escalating risks posed by advancements in AI and quantum computing, which could inadvertently trigger global conflict or facilitate widespread manipulation and disinformation campaigns, exacerbating societal divisions and undermining democratic principles.

Central to Suleyman’s analysis of the dangers inherent in the coming wave is the concept of pessimism aversion, a psychological phenomenon that makes individuals averse to acknowledging the potential risks and pitfalls associated with technological progress. He contends that this cognitive bias hampers rational decision-making and impedes efforts to proactively address emerging challenges, thereby amplifying the likelihood of catastrophic outcomes. Suleyman argues that by fostering a culture of unwarranted optimism and techno-utopianism, pessimism aversion perpetuates a dangerous cycle of complacency and shortsightedness, rendering humanity ill-prepared to confront the complex realities of the modern world. He claims that The Coming Wave is meant to counter this phenomenon and catalyze containment efforts to control the coming wave.

Containment as Impossible Yet Necessary

Suleyman turns to history to show that containing transformative technologies is nearly impossible. The examples of the mechanical loom and the printing press show that efforts at containment—even when undertaken by powerful state actors—usually fail. Even the one technology that Suleyman cites as having been successfully contained—nuclear weapons—has been contained only precariously, with many near misses. Suleyman delineates the powerful incentives behind the coming wave—some of which are common to all transformative technologies and some of which are unique features that make this wave particularly unstoppable. At the same time, he argues that humanity must still strive for containment in order to have a chance at survival and prosperity.

The inexorable march forward is driven by a myriad of powerful, entrenched, and interlocking incentives that render containment a formidable task. From national pride and strategic necessity to the pursuit of profit and the imperative to address global challenges, these incentives fuel an accelerating technological arms race that defies easy regulation or control. While individually formidable, “these different incentives and elements of the wave compound,” forming “a metastasizing, entangled morass of ideas unraveling themselves” (183). Suleyman uses imagery to depict the inevitable nature of these forces: “In this sense it feels like technology is, to use an unforgiving image, one big slime mold slowly rolling toward an inevitable future” (184). Stopping the progress of this slim mold and “containing technology means short-circuiting all these mutually reinforcing dynamics,” a huge, perhaps insurmountable, challenge (184).

Suleyman delineates the four defining features of the coming wave of technology—namely, asymmetry, hyper-evolution, omni-use, and autonomy—which collectively amplify the difficulties of containment. Asymmetry, characterized by the disproportionate power wielded by individuals and non-state actors, undermines traditional notions of military superiority and renders conventional deterrence strategies obsolete. Hyper-evolution ensures that technological advancements occur at an unprecedented pace, outstripping the capacity of regulatory frameworks to keep pace. The omni-use nature of emerging technologies means that their applications are manifold and ubiquitous, permeating every aspect of society and complicating efforts to regulate their proliferation. Finally, autonomy introduces a new level of complexity by endowing machines and systems with the ability to act independently, often beyond human comprehension or control.

Despite the formidable challenges posed by the coming wave, Suleyman contends that containment is both necessary and imperative for the prosperity and survival of humanity. He introduces the concept of the “narrow path,” a precarious balancing act between embracing the benefits of technological progress and mitigating its inherent risks and dangers. Suleyman argues that navigating this narrow path requires bold, coordinated action on a global scale, encompassing regulatory interventions, technological safeguards, and international cooperation. While acknowledging the impossibility of fully containing the tide of technological advancement, Suleyman maintains that concerted efforts to steer its trajectory and harness its potential for the greater good are essential for safeguarding the future of humanity.

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