The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2023

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Summary

Background

Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Prologue-Chapter 1

Part 1, Chapters 2-3

Part 2, Chapters 4-6

Part 2, Chapters 7-8

Part 3, Chapters 9-12

Part 4, Chapter 13-Afterword

Key Figures

Themes

Index of Terms

Important Quotes

Essay Topics

Tools

Beta

Discussion Questions

Part 2, Chapters 7-8Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Part 2: “The Next Wave”

Part 2, Chapter 7 Summary: “Four Features of the Coming Wave”

Suleyman describes how, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, an assorted crew of Ukrainian software engineers, drone hobbyists, and soldiers quickly banded together to combat the invasion. Using drones rigged with small explosives, they took out vehicles and a supply base, causing the Russian army to retreat. The improvisation of the Ukrainian volunteers showed how new, affordable technologies available in the consumer market easily undermined a traditional military.

Suleyman argues that the coming wave of technology differs from previous waves due to four features: Its technologies have asymmetric impact, are experiencing a hyper-evolution, are omni-use, and have increasing autonomy.

As the Ukraine example shows, this new wave of technology empowers users asymmetrically, transferring enormous power to individuals. Suleyman quotes a security expert, Audrey Kurth Cronin, who remarked that “Never before have so many had access to such advanced technologies capable of inflicting death and mayhem” (138). Individuals can now utilize massively lethal devices that are difficult and expensive to combat; the United States and Israel counter the attacks of cheap drones with $3 million missiles. With this kind of asymmetric power, a single individual or even a single action could have global consequences. One experiment could spark a pandemic, one quantum computer could break the world’s cryptography, or one person could deploy a fleet of autonomous lethal weapons.

Moreover, the technologies of the coming wave are experiencing a hyper-evolution, growing exponentially. Suleyman claims that the rapid advancement of digital technologies in the last forty years will be echoed by rapid advancements in the material world in the next forty years.

These new technologies are also omni-use, meaning that they have a huge swath of applications. Because of this, they will become embedded everywhere and will be more difficult to contain than single-use technologies. AI has not yet achieved general intelligence, but already, systems like DeepMind’s Gato can perform six hundred different tasks. When it comes to synthetic biology, Suleyman points out that this field entails engineering life, which is a general technique with endless applications.

The coming wave will include autonomous systems, systems that can interact with their surroundings and take actions without human approval. Increasingly, technology is moving away from constant human oversight to greater degrees of autonomy. Today, AI systems are still programmed with certain objectives, but they learn from their interactions and find their own strategies. Moreover, many technologies are becoming so complex that they cannot be understood by humans. Quantum computing pushes the limits of human understanding. AI systems are black boxes, with opaque decision-making processes.

Ultimately, Suleyman claims, these technologies may advance to the point where humans are no longer at the top of the food chain. If AI becomes autonomous and reaches the point at which it can improve itself recursively, becoming increasingly intelligent and effective, it might surpass humans, with no guarantee that it would behave according to human values.

Part 2, Chapter 8 Summary: “Unstoppable Incentives”

Suleyman argues that there are several entrenched incentives driving the coming wave of technology: national pride and strategic necessity, the technological arms race, the open culture of research, profit, global challenges, and ego.

After AlphaGo defeated a top Go player in Seoul, the following year the program defeated the number-one ranked player in the world, Ke Jie, at a matchup in Wuzhen, China. Suleyman notes that this defeat was a “Sputnik moment” for China, comparing the event to the 1957 launch of the world’s first artificial satellite, which shocked America and alerted the country to Russia’s progress in space technology (155). After AlphaGo beat Ke Jie, China announced that it would pour resources into science and technology, declaring a national strategy to be the world leader in AI by 2030. As of 2023, six years after announcing the plan, China has surpassed the United States and other Western nations in the pace of AI research. China also excels at cleantech, bioscience, and quantum computing.

Suleyman notes that the competition between nations extends beyond China and the United States. He observes that countries presume that their rivals are already engaged in an arms race, thus making an arms race a self-fulfilling prophecy. As a result, no nation can afford to limit technological development.

Another incentive that pushes technological development forward is the desire to share knowledge. Suleyman points out that science and technology have a culture of openness, marked by strong academic incentives to push for publication, citations, and sharing. Huge amounts of AI data and code are public. Scientific and technical papers are easily accessible online. Moreover, this culture of openness is supercharged by massive funding.

Yet another driver behind technological innovation is the promise of profit. According to Suleyman, this is “perhaps the most persistent, entrenched, dispersed incentive of all” (170). Whoever controls the technology of the coming wave stands to make huge profits. AI is forecasted to add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030.

Aside from profit, people are also motivated to push forward the technologies of the coming wave in order to meet seemingly insurmountable global challenges, including food shortages and climate change. Suleyman argues that the only way to solve these challenges is by harnessing these new technologies, using them to develop solutions like carbon capture to meet the planet’s needs.

Lastly, Suleyman contends that a major—and under-recognized—incentive of the coming wave is ego: Scientists and technologists crave recognition, success, and glory. They desire to push boundaries despite the consequences.

Together, all these incentives make the coming wave seem inevitable. Suleyman argues that the only entity that has a chance of containing this wave is the nation-state.

Part 2, Chapters 7-8 Analysis

Suleyman employs colorful and metaphoric language throughout Chapters 7-8, as he does in the rest of the book, to vividly illustrate the transformative impact and potential consequences of the coming wave of technology. For example, in Chapter 8, he describes technology as “one big slime mold slowly rolling toward an inevitable future, with billions of tiny contributions being made by each individual academic or entrepreneur without any coordination or ability to resist” (184). By using evocative language, Suleyman captures the imagination of readers and effectively conveys the urgency and complexity of the technological developments he discusses.

Suleyman explains the full range of incentives driving the coming wave of technology, building up his argument that the wave is inevitable. By delving into examples like China’s national strategy to lead in AI by 2030, he shows how national pride, strategic necessity, profit motives, and global challenges collectively fuel the relentless pace of technological innovation. By providing a comprehensive overview of these incentives, Suleyman strengthens his argument that the coming wave is not only driven by technological progress but also by deeply ingrained societal, economic, and geopolitical factors.

These chapters touch on the theme of The Benefits of Transformative Technologies by highlighting the transformative potential of emerging technologies in various domains. Through examples like the Ukrainian volunteers’ use of drones and the projected economic impact of AI, Suleyman underscores the potential for these technologies to empower individuals, drive economic growth, and facilitate innovative solutions to pressing global problems. This exploration hints at the positive societal impacts that the coming wave of technology may bring, while also acknowledging that this democratization of power presents a double-edged sword.

Conversely, these chapters also focus on The Dangers of Transformative Technologies by addressing ethical, social, and geopolitical risks associated with rapid technological advancement. Suleyman discusses concerns such as the asymmetric power dynamics enabled by emerging technologies, the potential for autonomous systems to surpass human control, and the geopolitical implications of technological competition between nations. By highlighting these risks, he underscores the importance of containment and mitigating the potential harms of the coming wave of technology.

Suleyman shows in greater depth why his readers should think of Containment as Impossible Yet Necessary, describing the four features that make the coming wave uniquely powerful: These technologies are asymmetric, omni-use, autonomous, and hyper-evolutionary. All four of these qualities make them especially likely both to spread rapidly and to usher in profound social and political change.

Suleyman mentions the psychological drivers behind the coming wave, such as ego, to provide insight into the motivations of scientists and technologists involved in technological innovation. This insight echoes his earlier discussion of pessimism aversion, a psychological factor that causes people to resist taking the coming wave seriously. By acknowledging the role of ego and the desire for recognition and success in driving technological progress, Suleyman treats human psychology as just one of the unpredictable forces behind the coming wave. This analysis highlights the complex interplay between individual motivations and broader societal forces shaping the development of emerging technologies.