The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2023

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Summary

Background

Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Prologue-Chapter 1

Part 1, Chapters 2-3

Part 2, Chapters 4-6

Part 2, Chapters 7-8

Part 3, Chapters 9-12

Part 4, Chapter 13-Afterword

Key Figures

Themes

Index of Terms

Important Quotes

Essay Topics

Tools

Beta

Discussion Questions

Part 1, Chapters 2-3Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Part 1: “Homo Technologicus”

Part 1, Chapter 2 Summary: “Endless Proliferation”

To show how a wave of technology spreads, Suleyman describes the history of the engine. In the early 1800s, the spread of railways demonstrated the power of steam engines. Inventors tried to use these steam engines to create portable vehicles—precursors to cars—but the engines were heavy, and the vehicles had only limited speeds. In the late 1800s, the first functional internal combustion engine was produced, paving the way for the creation of the first proper car. However, these cars were prohibitively expensive. It wasn’t until Henry Ford revolutionized the car industry with the invention of the moving assembly line that car prices became more accessible, facilitating the rapid adoption of cars throughout the United States and, eventually, the world.

Suleyman asserts that technology inevitably spreads in waves. A wave is a “set of technologies coming together around the same time, powered by one or several new general-purpose technologies with profound societal implications” (40). He defines general-purpose technologies as those that empower massive advances in human capabilities.

As science leads to new discoveries, people apply these discoveries to improve quality of life through new technologies. Demand for these technologies grows, creating competition. This competition leads to improvements in the technology and reduction in costs. The technologies become easier and cheaper to use, which increases adoption.

Understanding these waves, Suleyman claims, helps one understand the history of humanity. For instance, early stone tools comprised one wave of technology. Another important wave was the invention of fire. Fire not only allowed Homo erectus access to light, warmth, and safety, but it also spurred evolutionary changes, thanks to the related invention of cooking. Cooked food, which released energy faster than raw food, eventually led to the digestive tract shrinking and the brain enlarging.

Suleyman observes that general-purpose technologies, like stone tools, fire, language, agriculture, and writing, affect humanity so deeply that they become invisible, and people take them for granted. A major study, he says, identified only twenty-four general-purpose technologies over the course of human history. These include inventions like iron and bronze, printing presses, electricity, and the internet.

The occurrence of waves has accelerated over time. In the 10,000-year span leading up to 1000 BCE, seven general-purpose technologies emerged. In the 200-year span from 1700 to 1900, six emerged. And in just the last 100 years, seven emerged.

Suleyman asserts that once a general-purpose technology gains traction, proliferation is the default—the technology spreads explosively in a way that might have seemed impossible when it was first invented. Two forces drive this phenomenon: demand and cost reduction. These forces push the technology to become better and cheaper. As technology becomes better and cheaper, it enables the invention of more technologies that can build on top of it.

The invention of computers serves as an example of this proliferation. In the early 1940s, the president of technology company IBM allegedly said, “I think there is a world market for about five computers” (48). Now, the global count of computers, smartphones, and similar digital devices sits at an estimated 14 billion. In turn, computing has given rise to new inventions that touch every aspect of modern human life.

This, Suleyman says, is the historical norm of technology: Technology diffuses widely, driven by huge incentives which decrease its cost and increase its accessibility and power.

Part 1, Chapter 3 Summary: “The Containment Problem”

Suleyman observes that technology, no matter how well-intentioned, can have unforeseen and harmful consequences. For instance, cars, jet engines, and CFCs from refrigerators contribute to global warming. Technology can even have consequences that directly contradict its original purpose. Gutenberg invented the printing press to make and sell Bibles under the auspices of the Catholic Church, but this invention catalyzed the Scientific Revolution and Reformation, threatening the Church’s power. Antibiotics combat disease, but are rendered less effective through their overuse.

Once technology spreads, people shape it to their uses. When Edison invented the phonograph, intending it for use as a recording device and as a tool to help the blind, he was appalled that people wanted to use it to play music.

Suleyman says he is concerned by the inevitable but unpredictable consequences of increasingly powerful technology. The issue, he claims, is one of containment, which he defines as “the overarching ability to control, limit, and, if need be, close down technologies at any stage of their development or deployment” (53). The more powerful a technology becomes, the more ingrained it becomes in society, which increases the likelihood of unintended negative consequences and makes containment all the more urgent.

However, Suleyman points out that containment is extremely rare and difficult. In fact, he shows that the only successful example of containment in history has been the containment of nuclear weapons—and that containment has only partially succeeded. When people have tried to contain other types of technologies, they have failed. Queen Elizabeth I tried to stop the spread of new knitting machines that threatened to upset the knitting guilds, but centuries later, mechanical looms catalyzed the Industrial Revolution. The Ottoman Empire tried to ban the printing press, but three hundred years later, Istanbul possessed its first sanctioned printing press.

Nuclear weapons are the only technology that has been at least partially contained, and Suleyman argues that this because they are extremely complicated, expensive, and difficult to build and maintain, and because the mutual certainty of destruction serves as a powerful deterrent.

Despite the extreme consequences of mishandling nuclear weapons, nuclear history is littered with worrisome accidents, failures, and near misses. For instance, in 1961, a B-52 carrying a live hydrogen bomb crashed into a field in North Carolina, and the impact jostled its safety switch to the “armed” position. Three of its safety mechanisms were destroyed, with just one left in place, narrowly avoiding a detonation. In a more famous example, during the Cuban missile crisis, a full-scale nuclear war was only averted by a Russian commodore’s refusal to give firing orders.

Meanwhile, countries like North Korea, China, India, and Pakistan are increasing their nuclear arsenals. Nuclear material has also gone unaccounted for—stolen from hospitals, businesses, and militaries. The United States has lost three nuclear weapons. In other words, while the world has managed to avoid complete nuclear warfare, intense efforts at containing these weapons have only partially succeeded.

Suleyman says that, unsurprisingly, containment is no longer discussed as a viable or desirable method for dealing with new technologies; people have resigned themselves to the inevitable spread of technology. However, in the next thirty years, a new wave of technology—led by AI and biotechnology—will present humanity with the challenge of containment.

Part 1 Analysis

In these chapters, Suleyman uses historical context to illuminate the unique characteristics of the impending wave of technology and to emphasize its profound impact on society. By drawing parallels between past technological revolutions and the current one, he underscores the transformative potential of AI and biotechnology. For instance, in Chapter 2, Suleyman traces the evolution of past general-purpose technologies, such as stone tools, fire, and language, to demonstrate how these innovations have shaped human history and improved quality of life. By highlighting the historical precedent of transformative technological waves, Suleyman sets the stage for understanding the potential impact of the coming wave. His examples also show that such transformative technologies can be difficult or impossible to contain. Queen Elizabeth I’s failed attempt to stop the spread of new knitting machines, shows that once a powerful new technology begins to spread, societies often have little choice but to accept its harms along with its benefits.

Suleyman underscores the interconnected nature of the incentives driving the forthcoming wave of technology. He demonstrates how various factors, such as increasing demand and decreasing costs, contribute to the rapid spread and adoption of new technologies. This interconnectedness is exemplified in Chapter 2, in which Suleyman discusses how competition drives technological advancements, leading to the proliferation of innovations with more features at lower prices. For instance, he highlights the example of the invention of cars, which became more accessible to the masses with the introduction of Henry Ford’s moving assembly line. This interconnectedness reinforces the complex dynamics at play and underscores the urgency of addressing the risks associated with unchecked technological advancement.

Supporting his arguments with statistics, Suleyman provides empirical evidence to bolster his assertions regarding the potential risks and benefits of the coming wave of technology. By presenting historical data, he enhances the credibility of his arguments and provides quantifiable insights into the multifaceted impacts of technological proliferation. In Chapter 2, for instance, he notes that one hundred years after the invention of the printing press, “countries like Italy, France, and Germany produced around 40 million books per half century,” whereas “in the seventeenth century Europe printed 500 million books” (46). Suleyman explains that demand and declining costs fueled each other: “One analysis estimates that the introduction of the printing press in the fifteenth century caused a 340-fold decrease in the price of a book, further driving adoption and yet more demand” (46). Through examples like these, Suleyman shows how compounding incentives drive the rapid spread of new technologies.

The Benefits of Transformative Technologies are underscored by Suleyman’s exploration of historical precedents, demonstrating how past waves of technology have led to transformative societal advancements. Through examples of general-purpose technologies that have shaped human history, such as fire and language, he illustrates the potential for AI and biotechnology to revolutionize human capabilities and address pressing global challenges. In Chapter 2, Suleyman discusses how the invention of fire not only provided access to light, warmth, and safety but also spurred evolutionary changes through the invention of cooking. This historical perspective highlights the potential for AI and biotechnology to similarly revolutionize human society.

Conversely, Suleyman illuminates The Dangers of Transformative Technologies by examining the unintended consequences and harmful outcomes resulting of past technological advancements. By highlighting historical examples of technology causing harm, such as global warming attributed to cars and refrigerators, he underscores the urgency of addressing the risks associated with the rapid proliferation of AI and biotechnology. In Chapter 3, Suleyman discusses how technological advancements, such as the printing press and antibiotics, have had unintended negative consequences that directly contradict their original purposes, further emphasizing the potential dangers of unchecked technological development.

In these chapters, Suleyman also characterizes Containment as Impossible Yet Necessary. He examines the difficult balance between harnessing the benefits of technology while mitigating its potential risks. He acknowledges the challenges inherent in containing disruptive technologies and emphasizes the necessity of proactive measures to address these challenges. Through historical examples of failed containment attempts, he shows that, like real waves, technological waves are almost impossible to stop. He highlights the unique challenges of containing nuclear weapons, the only partially successful example of containment in history, further emphasizing both the difficulty and the necessity of containing powerful technologies.